Moon Phase × UAP Sightings — Analysis of 147,628 Records
Moon Phase × UAP Sightings — Analysis of 147,628 Records
We just published a new analytical report on whether lunar phase correlates with UAP reporting frequency. This is the largest moon phase–UAP correlation study we're aware of — 147,628 sighting records from NUFORC and our own submissions database. Primary finding: The chi-square test rejects uniform distribution across 8 lunar phases (χ² = 212.18, p < 0.000001, df = 7). Darker phases show higher reporting — Waning Crescent peaks at 13.1%, while Waxing Gibbous troughs at 11.7%. The counterintuitive result: Full Moon logs fewer sightings than New Moon (17,575 vs 19,145). If misidentification on bright nights drove reporting, you'd expect the inverse. Our assessment: The effect is statistically significant but practically modest — 1.4 percentage points separate peak from trough. With a dataset this large, the chi-square test will flag even trivial deviations. We're transparent about that in the report. Statistical significance ≠ dramatic real-world pattern. The full report includes phase-by-phase breakdowns, methodology documentation (Julian Date computation, no external APIs), nighttime filtering (66.2% of sightings fall between 8 PM–6 AM), and known limitations. Shoutout to the community member who suggested adding moon phase correlation to our sighting reports — invaluable feedback that directly shaped this analysis. Sentient Orbs is an open-source intelligence platform focused on UAP data analysis. We publish our methodology and flag our own limitations — we think the field needs more of that. Full report: https://sentientorbs.com/intel/reports/intel-004 Welcome any feedback on methodology or suggestions for follow-up analysis. If you've had a sighting, you can submit your report directly at https://sentientorbs.com/report/sighting — every submission feeds into our dataset for future analysis. submitted by /u/Sentient_Orbs [link] [comments]